Assuming the US slaps tariffs on all Chinese imports, as US president Donald Trump has threatened to do. If it continues to run like this way, both of them will have to pay a big for it. As the reactions from the financial markets seem worse and which create the possibilities to cut the GDP of the United States by more than 0.9 per cent in 2019, while Chinese economic output would be 1.6 per cent lower than it otherwise would be, IMF said.
US will impose tariffs on a US $267 billion of Chinese goods-covering nearly all of Chinese imports as well as it's Automotive imports too that would create risks for many countries which are directly or indirectly involve trade with them except some of the countries like Vietnam.
China retaliated with a 25 per cent tariffs on US $50 billion of US imports and variable tariffs of 5 per cent to 10 per cent on a further US $60 billion of US imports. That was past and many believed that the trade war was going to be finished by negotiations but thing went disturbingly wrong since Donald Trump surprised everyone by announcing plans for imposing tariffs again on Chinese imports.
As one of the declarations came from Washington, another from Beijing that created lots of troubles that would end making worse to both of their economy.
US has failed down to escalate it's GDP in recent years. In 2018, the GDP growth of the US was 2.9% but due to the engagement in trade war with China it has ended up with lower growth 2.5% in 2019. IMF is now frightening to foresee the US growth 1.8% by 2020 if the trade war never be stopped within.
In contrast, China is also a big looser in terms of GDP increase(Chinese Currency was manipulated well). China's GDP was downfall from 6.6% in 2018 to 6.2% in 2019. Herein, IMF expected to predict the Chinese economy growth 5.6% in the imminent future.
But That's not the way things currently look. China has played fast and loose with rules of global trading system. Mr. Trump is right somehow in his assessment that China would come off worse in a protectionist battle. No question, the US could win a trade war against China but it would be the dictionary definition of a Pyrrhic victory.
No comments:
Post a Comment